Ads are carrying orders your organic rank can't hold — ACOS 19.26% is healthy, but top-converting head terms all rank organically beyond #110. Cutting ads loses those orders and slides BSR.
pink cardigan ranks #127 organically, yellow cardigan for women #143, red #130 — every top-converting head term sits beyond #110, so organic placement barely gets impressions. High ad share is the symptom, not the disease; lift organic rank first and the share falls on its own.
Evidence → 02 Campaigns & KeywordsOff-Amazon placement at ACOS 179% ($306 for 7 orders in 30 days, CVR 0.8%) plus 237 zero-conversion terms burning $706 (Spanish cross-category terms, generic head terms). Both are one-click cuts in the console — minimal risk, fully reversible.
Evidence → 01 Placements / 02 NegationsYour #1 threat Brand A sells at the same $24.99 with half your reviews (951 vs 2,389), yet holds BSR 231 vs your 19,979 — the gap is sales velocity, not a review moat. Meanwhile your 20-color long-tail terms already rank organic #1 (peach 3/4 sleeve) with almost no ad support.
Evidence → 05 Competition / 02 Owned terms| ☐ | # | Pri | Action | Expected impact | Ev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This Week · one-click in Ads Console · ~55 min total · fully reversible | |||||
| 1 | P0 | Cut the Off-Amazon placement — set Off-Amazon bid adjustment to −100% (or exclude) on all campaigns. Top bleeders: CMP-02 $78.41 / CMP-06 $57.94 / CMP-01 $43.07 PPC · Fri, Jul 10 · 10 min · $0 | Saves ≈$306/mo (≈$3.7K/yr) | 01 | |
| 2 | P0 | Shift budget to the cash cow — raise CMP-081 from $10→$20/day (ACOS 12.9%, 73 orders); cut CMP-05 from $20→$10/day (ACOS 42.4%). Net-zero spend; review after 7 days PPC · Fri, Jul 10 · 10 min · $0 | ACOS −1–2 pts | 02 | |
| 3 | P0 | Negate dead terms — phrase-negate sacos de mujer… / bolero for women / bolero sweater; exact-negate cardigan sweater women (67 clicks, $20.45, 0 orders). Keep rose / gold / peach as watch terms — do not negate PPC · Fri, Jul 10 · 20 min · $0 | Recovers a few hundred $/mo | 02 | |
| 4 | P1 | Verify suspected mis-scoped campaign — the CMP-12 naming doesn't match the account's other 24 campaigns; confirm ownership and remove from this ASIN's basis if mis-scoped PPC · Fri, Jul 10 · 15 min · $0 | Clean reporting basis | 02 | |
| This Month · requires people / supply chain | |||||
| 5 | P1 | Restock the red variant — 18 units left while "red cardigan for women" is a live, proven converter; also audit 6 variants at zero stock and 23 at ≤5 units Supply chain · per PO cycle · PO cost | Prevents stockout on a proven converter | 03 | |
| 6 | Strategic | Fix the root cause: top-of-search on core color terms — run top-of-search targeting on pink / yellow / white cardigan for 60–90 days to push organic rank into top-30, then taper. ACOS will rise before it falls during cultivation — expected; don't abort PPC · start Jul 10 · TOS premium | Structural TACoS reduction | 07 | |
| 7 | Lever | A/B the main image — CTR 0.197% is under half the industry floor (0.4%) while CVR sits at the top of band: clicks are the #1 lever. Lead with color + silhouette; consider Vine for fresh customer photos Creative + PPC · by Jul 19 · Photo / Vine | CTR has room to double | 03 | |
30 days: ~$1,012/mo of waste (≈$12.1K/yr) → near zero; ACOS 19.26% → ~17.5%. 90 days: TACoS 8.30% → ~6.5% (approaching the 6% target); organic order share 59.5% → ~65%; several core terms into top-30. This cycle stops the bleeding first — volume gains land in days 60–90.
Full projection → 07| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Peak normal day | 105 units | May 24 |
| Normal-day average (27 valid days) | ≈70 units | After excluding May 3–5 |
| Daily range | 50–105 units | No cliff, no downtrend |
| Month shape | — | Slight lift from May 19 · mature, stable pattern → supports "don't panic-cut" |
| Date | Units sold | Flag |
|---|---|---|
| 05/01 | 35 | — |
| 05/02 | 37 | — |
| 05/03 | 383 | ETL DUP · EXCLUDED |
| 05/04 | 383 | ETL DUP · EXCLUDED |
| 05/05 | 383 | ETL DUP · EXCLUDED |
| 05/06 | 98 | STRONG |
| 05/07 | 57 | — |
| 05/08 | 58 | — |
| 05/09 | 53 | — |
| 05/10 | 59 | — |
| 05/11 | 71 | — |
| 05/12 | 63 | — |
| 05/13 | 95 | STRONG |
| 05/14 | 63 | — |
| 05/15 | 63 | — |
| 05/16 | 53 | — |
| 05/17 | 48 | — |
| 05/18 | 67 | — |
| 05/19 | 94 | STRONG |
| 05/20 | 80 | STRONG |
| 05/21 | 75 | STRONG |
| 05/22 | 80 | STRONG |
| 05/23 | 69 | — |
| 05/24 | 105 | STRONG peak normal day |
| 05/25 | 81 | STRONG |
| 05/26 | 77 | STRONG |
| 05/27 | 62 | — |
| 05/28 | 84 | STRONG |
| 05/29 | 82 | STRONG |
| 05/30 | 73 | — |
| Placement | Spend | Share | CVR | ACOS | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product pages | $2,281 | 48.0% | 9.4% | 19.1% | Hold |
| Rest of search | $1,480 | 31.1% | 10.6% | 17.3% | Hold |
| Top of search | $690 | 14.5% | 12.7% | 22.9% | FEED |
| Off-Amazon | $306 | 6.4% | 0.8% | 179.1% | CUT |
| Type | Spend | Sales | ACOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sponsored Products (SP) | $4,152.61 | $22,066 | 18.8% |
| Sponsored Display (SD) | $472.16 | $1,948 | 24.2% |
| SP+SD subtotal (primary basis) | $4,624.77 | $24,014 | 19.26% |
| Sponsored Brands video (SB)1 | $607.62 | $1,639 | 37.1% |
| Campaign | Role | Daily budget | Spend | Orders | Sales | ACOS | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMP-01 | Manual · core prospecting | $30 | $1,005.10 | 209 | $5,152.82 | 19.5% | Hold |
| CMP-02 | Auto · efficient harvesting | $20 | $529.45 | 145 | $3,582.09 | 14.8% | Hold |
| CMP-03 | Cash cow · pink | $21 | $469.63 | 107 | $2,692.14 | 17.4% | Hold |
| CMP-04 | ASIN targeting | $15 | $342.40 | 76 | $1,868.84 | 18.3% | Hold |
| CMP-05 | Exact · worst efficiency | $20 | $303.48 | 29 | $716.16 | 42.4% | CUT |
| CMP-06 | Exact · hot colors | $20 | $286.38 | 49 | $1,207.79 | 23.7% | Hold |
| CMP-07 | Manual · expansion | $10 | $285.76 | 56 | $1,337.57 | 21.4% | Hold |
| CMP-08 | Cash cow · product targeting | $10 | $232.69 | 73 | $1,796.97 | 12.9% | FEED |
| CMP-09 | Category targeting | $7 | $193.37 | 31 | $784.61 | 24.6% | WATCH |
| CMP-10 | Auto · similar products | $7 | $173.37 | 51 | $1,229.14 | 14.1% | Hold |
| CMP-11 | Manual · red-brown | $10 | $140.63 | 26 | $641.61 | 21.9% | Hold |
CMP-08 runs the floor ACOS of 12.9% with 73 solid orders on just $10/day — chronically budget-capped — while CMP-05 burns $20/day at 42.4%, double the health line. The question isn't whether to spend; it's where the same dollars sit → Action 2. Separately, the CMP-12 naming anomaly is likely a mis-scoped campaign → Action 4.
| Quadrant | Example terms | Our position | Budget weight | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contested · winning | pink cardigan (48 orders / 21.5%) · yellow cardigan for women (39 / 20.8%) · pink cardigan for women (25) | Organic #110–143 | 38% | DEFEND · order base |
| Owned long-tail · winning | peach 3/4 sleeve cardigan (#1) · lemon yellow cardigan (#9) · dark green cropped cardigan (#10) | Organic #1–#10 | 30% | SCALE · free goldmine |
| Long-tail · candidates | rose / gold cardigan · peach sweater · womens shrug | Small sample — watch | 20% | TEST · don't negate |
| Contested · losing | cardigan sweater women (0 orders / $20.45) · white cardigan sweaters (13 / 13.5%) | Mostly #100+ | 12% | CUT · dead head terms |
| Metric | Current | Apparel benchmark | Assessment | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conversion rate (CVR) | 9.67% | 5%–10% | Top of band; traffic that arrives converts | ✓ STRONG |
| Click-through rate (CTR) | 0.197% | 0.4%–0.8% | Under half the floor; main-image appeal is the constraint → Action 7 | ✗ BOTTLENECK |
| Cost per click (CPC) | $0.46 | Category-typical range | Disciplined bidding; no bid-war premium | ✓ |
| Average order value (AOV) | $24.73 | List-price center $24.99 | On target; no abnormal discount dilution | ✓ |
| Week | Range | ACOS | CVR | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 5/01–5/03 | 22.0% | 8.4% | Baseline |
| Week 2 | 5/04–5/10 | 16.9% | 11.4% | Sweet spot · best of month |
| Week 3 | 5/11–5/17 | 20.2% | 9.3% | Back to baseline |
| Week 4 | 5/18–5/24 | 19.7% | 9.0% | Impressions +2.37M · CTR fell to 0.122% |
| Week 5 | 5/25–5/30 | 25.4% | 7.3% | Softening · single-day ACOS 40.6% on 5/30 |
Red variant at 18 sellable units while it's a live converting color ("red cardigan for women" active); 6 variants at zero stock, 23 at ≤5 units. Lead colors are healthy — light pink 136 / purple 149 / white 287; total sellable 2,308. → Action 5.
| Operation type | Count | Share1 |
|---|---|---|
| Budget changes | 78 | 25.0% |
| Placement bid adjustments | 47 | 15.1% |
| Bid changes | 41 | 13.1% |
| Products added | 39 | 12.5% |
| Products paused | 34 | 10.9% |
| Negative keywords added | 31 | 9.9% |
| Targeting terms added | 18 | 5.8% |
| Negative products added | 8 | 2.6% |
| Total (30 days) | 312 | 100% |
Budget and bid changes (78+47+41 = 166) are over half the log — resources are constantly being shuffled. Negation actions (31+8 = 39) are comparatively restrained, which matches Section 02's "237 zero-conversion terms still burning": quick to tune, slow to prune.
High-frequency management — plus 31 negatives already added and 34 pauses — also explains why true waste is only ~$470, about a tenth of spend. This is the profile of a well-managed account; it corroborates the healthy ACOS 19.26% read and supports the "Root Cause" card's claim that high ad share is a symptom, not mismanagement.
| Brand / ASIN | Positioning | Price | Category BSR | Reviews |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This ASIN · Client brand B0XXXXXX01 | US | $24.99 | 19,979 | 2,389 · 4.5★ |
| Brand A B0XXXXXX07 | #1 THREAT · ATTACK | $24.99 | 231 | 951 · 4.5★ |
| Brand B B0XXXXXX04 | PRICE WALL · AVOID | $12.54 | 418 | 24,427 |
| Brand B B0XXXXXX03 | REVIEW WALL · AVOID | $17.60 | 476 | 18,032 |
| Brand C B0XXXXXX02 | MID-PRICE VOLUME | $19.90 | 1,629 | 8,717 |
| Brand D B0XXXXXX05 | SAME TIER · DEFEND | $24.99 | 4,420 | 3,054 |
| Brand C B0XXXXXX06 | SAME TIER · DEFEND | $24.99 | 4,516 | 3,289 |
| Brand E B0XXXXXX09 | SAME TIER · DEFEND | $25.73 | 4,190 | 1,049 |
| Brand F B0XXXXXX08 | TAIL | $17.99 | 17,936 | 359 |
| Direction | Target | Rationale | Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVOID | Brand B ×2 | From $12.54 with 18–24K reviews; neither a price war nor a review war is winnable economics | Differentiate around them |
| ATTACK | Brand A | Same $24.99, 951 reviews (under half of yours), BSR 231 — the position is takeable | Out-run on velocity |
| DEFEND | Brand D / Brand C / Brand E | BSR 4,190–4,516, reviews 1,049–3,289 — adjacent same-tier pack | Suppress on efficiency |
| EXPAND | Owned long-tail colors | peach / lemon yellow / dark green at organic #1–#10, uncovered by rivals | Scale the long tail |
| Metric | Value | Basis | vs. target |
|---|---|---|---|
| TACoS | 8.30% | Ad spend $4,624.77 ÷ deduped sales $55,699 | Target ≤6% · +2.3 pts |
| Ad ROAS | 5.19× | ASIN-level · $24,014 ÷ $4,624.77 | Equiv. ACOS 19.26%, inside 35% line |
| Source | Order share | Sales share | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ad-attributed | ≈40.5% | ≈43.1% | Current growth driver |
| Organic | ≈59.5% | ≈56.9% | Already the majority |
Basis clarification: the working assumption was "64% ad order share"; the deduped actual is ≈40.5% (raw basis ≈30–32%). On either basis, dependence is far below perception — the priority is converting color-term traffic into organic rank, not slashing ads.
| Metric | Now | 30 days | 60 days | 90 days | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ad ACOS | 19.26% | ~17.5% | ~17.0% | ~16.5% | Cut Off-Amazon + negations → fed cash cows + CTR lift |
| TACoS | 8.30% | ~7.8% | ~7.0% | ~6.5% | Organic share rising · core-term rank climbing toward the 6% target |
| Organic order share | ~59.5% | ~60% | ~63% | ~65% | Top-of-search cultivation taking hold |
| Monthly wasted spend | ~$1,012 | Largely recovered | Held low | Held low | Off-Amazon $306 + zero-conversion terms $706 · negation list maintained |
| Monthly orders | ~2,265 | Roughly flat | +5–8% | +10–15% | Incremental clicks × stable CVR → organic + long-tail twin engines |
| Core-term organic rank | #100+ | Observation | Partial climb | Several into top-30 | Sustained top-of-search + rising velocity |
① Basis: monitor on the deduped basis going forward; if the May 3–5 duplication isn't fixed upstream it will keep polluting reads. ② Profitability: every "healthy" call in this report covers the advertising link only; true profit requires COGS. ③ Patience: during top-of-search cultivation ACOS rises before it falls — that's the expected path; don't abort on short-term swings in days 60–90, and avoid ACOS-only judgment. Breaking into BSR <10,000 depends on sustained velocity gains — verify monthly.